Luxor RFQ June 2023 Insights: Next-Gen Premiums Rise, S19j XP Emerges
Prices for older rigs like the S19j are falling as newly announced rigs like the S19j XP come to market.
Temperatures are rising in the Bitcoin mining ASIC market as we head into summer. With the year’s hottest months around the corner, miner’s have begun ramping down their machines, resulting in a network hashrate drop of nearly 10% in mid-June. This drop in hashrate, along with the welcomed news of Black Rock’s Bitcoin ETF filing, offered tailwinds to hashprice as miner’s revenue climbed up to $79/Ph/day.
Demand in the ASIC marketplace for higher hashrate and higher efficiency models picked up this past month compared to May, as miners start to position themselves for the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. June also saw the introduction of Bitmain's newest miner, the Antminer S19j XP.
The Antminer S19 Pro and S19j Pro models have been machines of choice over the past couple years thanks to their solid performance and competitive pricing. However, the heydays of these units are now behind us as manufacturers and miners point their capital towards the next generation of machines.
Current prices for S19 Pro models are selling at a 25% discount to fair market value while the newer S19j Pro+ model listings are at a 22% discount. With both machines being phased out of Bitmain’s supply chain we anticipate this discount to continue as the market turns it’s head towards better performing machines like the S19 XP and M50S++.
| Efficiency (J/TH) | Break Even(Months) | Market Price | FMV (Calculated) | Premium/ Discount | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S19 Pro 104T | 29.5 | 13.8 | $13.25 | $17.56 | -25% |
| S19J Pro+ 120T | 27.5 | 14.1 | $15.00 | $19.12 | -22% |
| S19 XP 141T | 21.5 | 18.2 | $24.00 | $23.78 | 1% |
| M50S | 26.0 | 17.3 | $19.50 | $20.28 | -4% |
| M50S+ | 24.0 | 19.0 | $23.00 | $21.84 | 5% |
| M50S++ | 22.0 | 19.2 | $25.00 | $23.39 | 7% |
(Calculated FMV based on hashprice of $75/Ph/s/day, power rate of $0.06/kWh, and a break-even period of 18 months | Source: Hashrate Index and Luxor ASIC Trading Desk)
MicroBT finally released the price for the much anticipated Whatsminer M50S++ at $25/T. At this price point the M50S++ comes at a 7% premium to fair market value compared to the S19 XP, which is priced close to fair market.
Prices for M50S models declined and are now carrying a slight discount to FMV, though these units are still significantly more expensive when compared to the S19j Pro+. Overall, Whatsminer’s M50-series models continue to carry a premium over Bitmain’s S19-series machines.
Luxor RFQ June Metrics
Luxor's RFQ Platform traded 6,877 units in June, representing a 186% increase from the previous month. Participants settled 751 PH of hardware over the month. These rigs were distributed around the world, with the majority ending up in the United States.
| Destination | Hashrate (Ph/s) | Buy Volume ($) | % by Hashrate | % by Volume ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 591.24 | $ 7,281,613 | 79% | 78% |
| Paraguay | 36.00 | $ 455,421 | 5% | 5% |
| Canada | 3.60 | $ 26,985 | 0% | 0% |
| China | 120.60 | $ 1,617,777 | 16% | 17% |
| TOTAL | 751.44 | $ 9,381,796 |
(Source: Luxor RFQ platform data for total deals closed in June)
June saw significant demand for the S19j Pro+ models. Although the previous month had seen a slowdown in demand due to the uncertainty surrounding the performance of these units, early reports of their performance now indicate they seem to be a solid choice.
| Model | Units Traded | Hashrate Traded (PH/s) | Bid ($/TH) | Ask ($/TH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 9050MH | 1 | - | $ 0.42 | $ 0.46 |
| S19 | 1878 | 169.02 | $ 8.40 | $ 8.60 |
| S19 Pro | 1 | 0.10 | $ 12.50 | $ 13.44 |
| S19j Pro | 80 | 8.00 | $ 12.30 | $ 12.48 |
| S19j Pro [used] | 1080 | 108.57 | $ 9.45 | $ 9.80 |
| S19j Pro+ | 2050 | 246.00 | $ 12.15 | $ 14.00 |
| S19 XP | 32 | 4.51 | $ 22.80 | $ 27.74 |
| M30S [used] | 40 | 3.60 | $ 7.44 | $ 7.50 |
| M30S+ [used] | 220 | 22.00 | $ 7.50 | $ 7.88 |
| M30S++ | 8 | 0.82 | $ 11.50 | $ 12.94 |
| M50 | 703 | 84.35 | $ 12.95 | $ 15.32 |
| M50S | 305 | 37.25 | $ 19.00 | $ 19.72 |
| M50S+ | 480 | 67.20 | $ 22.60 | $ 23.96 |
| Total | 6877 | 751.44 |
(Source: Luxor RFQ platform data for total deals closed in June)
In June, there was a significant increase in the volume of used machines compared to the previous month. Notably, around 20% of the total units traded consisted of popular models like the used S19j Pros, M30S, and M30S++. Moreover, there has been a noticeable shift in buyers' capital allocation towards Whatsminer's M50 series machines due to a significant drop in their premium compared to the previous month.
| Model | Units | Hashrate (Ph/s) | % by Volume ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| S19 series | 5121 | 536.21 | 63% |
| M30 series | 268 | 26.42 | 2% |
| M50 series | 1488 | 188.80 | 35% |
| Total | 6877 | 751.44 |
(Source: Luxor RFQ platform data for total deals closed in June)
Bitmain still rules the market with 5121 units traded on Luxor’s RFQ, making up 63% of total platform volume.
| Shipped From | Hashrate (Ph/s) | Sell Volume ($) | % by Hashrate | % by Volume ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 383.15 | $ 4,506,362 | 51% | 48% |
| Hong Kong | 210.75 | $ 2,777,445 | 28% | 30% |
| China | 121.25 | $ 1,634,747 | 16% | 17% |
| Malaysia | 36.28 | $ 463,242 | 5% | 5% |
| TOTAL | 751.44 | $ 9,381,796 |
(Source: Luxor RFQ platform data for total deals closed in June)
We also noted high volumes of units traded within the United States over the last two months. In June, Luxor's ASIC Trading Desk observed over 3000 units traded inside the United States due to inventory liquidations and miners selling their old equipment for newer and better-performing machines.
Next-Gen in, Older Gens out
Scarcity in the Bitcoin ecosystem doesn't just apply to the supply of Bitcoin, but also to ASICs. ASIC manufacturers regularly release new models while phasing out older, less efficient machines. But the total number of machines produced for each new release depends on supply chain availability of ASIC chips and market appetite for hashrate.
Bitmain recently announced their latest S19j XP model, which means bye bye to the S19j Pro and S19j Pro+ models. Bitmain stopped manufacturing the S19j Pro several months ago and more recently, the S19j Pro+ machines. While these models still exist in the secondary market, their availability is increasingly limited. It's estimated that Bitmain produced a total of 60,000 S19j Pro+ units, all of which have been sold to miners and secondary market participants. Brand-new, in-box S19j Pro units are now exceptionally rare on the secondary market, but a plentiful supply of used S19j Pro machines remains.
If you're interested in learning more about the latest ASIC pricing and insights, please don't hesitate to reach out to [email protected] or [email protected]. We are happy to assist you and provide further information.
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