Hashrate Index Roundup (May 19, 2025)

Hello world, happy Monday!

TLDR

A mixed bag for this week's update: Bitcoin is up, difficulty is up, fees are up; hashprice is stable.

Over the past week, miners collected a total of ~3,201 BTC in block rewards, equivalent to ~$333 million. Transaction fees constituted 1.79% of block rewards totalling 57 BTC, equivalent to ~$5.95 million.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin trended up throughout the past week, increasing by 3.80% from ~101,727 to a current price of ~$105,636. Year-to-date performance stands at +12.94%.

Hashprice

USD hashprice increased by 10.16% from $50.08 per PH/s/Day to a current $55.17 per PH/s/Day.

BTC hashprice decreased by 3.31% from 0.00054265 BTC per PH/s/Day to a current 0.00052471 per PH/s/Day.

Hashrate & Difficulty

Network hashrate fell by 3.16%, with the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) moving from 887EH/s to 859EH/s. The 30-day SMA currently stands at 871 EH/s.

The latest difficulty adjustment took place on May 17, increasing network difficulty by 2.13% to 121.66T.

Blocks were found at an average time of around 9 minutes 52 seconds over the past 24 hours.

We currently estimate* an increase of ~1.18% for the upcoming adjustment, expected to occur on May 31.

*This estimate should be taken with a grain of salt given that we are so early into a difficulty epoch. Early on, difficulty predictions are relatively shaky because of short-term variance. However, as time (or blocks) pass, the noise fades and the signal sharpens.

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Transaction Fees

Over the past week, miners collected an average of 0.0517 BTC (per block, per day) in transaction fees compared to the prior week's 0.0444 BTC, a 17% increase.

Our transaction fee projection models remain bearish. For this week, the ARMA estimates 0.08 BTC per block per day and the VAR model forecasts 0.09 BTC per block per day.

Looking Forward

For this week's Hashrate Forward Market update, the forward market is pricing in an average hashprice of $52.46 or 0.00050 BTC over the next six months.

Have a great week, and Happy Hashing!

Footnotes

1. As at May 19, 2025 UTC 21:00. Values are subject to change.
2. Luxor estimates the adjustment date using average block times and blocks remaining in the epoch. Values are subject to change.
3. Luxor estimates the difficulty adjustment using average block times. Values are subject to change.